Just 1% of the two stimulus checks being sent to Americans in 2020 would be enough to raise the Bitcoin (BTC) price.
That was according to calculations circulating on Twitter this week, which suggest that the supply of new Bitcoins in 2020 could be bought up by less than 1% of the U.S. stimulus money.
More helicopter cash for BTC?
Noted by Matthew Kaye, managing partner at hedge fund Blockhead Capital on May 20, the numbers work by assuming an average BTC/USD price of $10,000 this year.
Miners will unlock 328,500 BTC, which at $10,000 gives a total of $3.285 billion. The total value of the two rounds of stimulus checks is $478 billion, based on the latest comments on the handouts by Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin.
Thus, to keep the Bitcoin price where it is, just 0.68% of the stimulus money would be required to buy up the new supply.
The equation is aided by Bitcoin’s halving earlier this month, which cut the number of new coins released per block by 50% and inflation to 1.8%.
Kaye admitted that he “doesn’t expect” Americans to actually buy Bitcoin in such amounts with their checks. As Cointelegraph reported, however, exchanges did notice an uptick in buys for the full $1,200 of the first check when it hit.
Kaye summarized in additional comments:
I don’t expect 1% of recipients to buy bitcoin – I’m merely illustrating a point that increased M2 entering the real economy will increase asset prices.
US M2 money supply surges 18% in months
Releasing charts to subscribers of his Telegram trading channel on Tuesday, he noted that M2 was now up 18% from October 19 last year.
The recovery in the S&P 500, he added, looked remarkably rosier when M2 is used as a denominator.
U.S. M2 money supply 1-year chart. Source: St. Louis Fed
At the same time, Bitcoin miners were shown to be selling less overall, with mining pool outflows diminishing. Analyst PlanB, the creator of the S2FX BTC price forecasting tool, described the behavior as “stock-to-flow in action.”